He may not have been able to make the most of his opportunities against Stan Wawrinka today, however I am confident in the Australian’s ability to turn things around today against Norbert Gombos.
Whilst I generally don’t like to weight performances at one location more heavily than the rest of a player’s schedule to this extent, it is clear that Bolt finds another leg at Melbourne Park. When you look at his overall form over the last couple of years he has certainly struggled moreso once he hops on a plane and heads overseas. Over the last two years at Melbourne Park he has defeated Jack Sock, Gilles Simon and Albert Ramos, and took eventual finalist Dominic Thiem to 5 sets last year in the second round. He looked as fit as I can recall seeing him in recent years when he defeated Kokkinakis and McDonald, before dropping a final set tiebreak to Wawrinka. Bolt led the first set *4-3, won the second set and served for the match in the decided, however couldn’t quite overcome Stan. He will take confidence from his game overall though, as he faces Gombos here in the first round.
Gombos didn’t start his stay in Melbourne overly well, losing to Max Purcell 4-6 4-6 in the first round of the Great Ocean Road tournament. Lapses in each set were costly for Gombos, who was unable to break Purcell for the duration of the match. He also struggled to gain ascendancy with his first serve, with the 63% of first serve points won his 3rd worst return on hardcourt over the last 12 months. With cloudy, slightly windy conditions forecast for day 1, and the fitness edge for Bolt having not had to undertake quarantine, the odds here for the Australian look too good to pass up.
I have Bolt rated at $1.65 here, so the $1.90 available appears great value.
2.5 units Bolt to defeat Gombos at $1.90 (-110) at Bet365