For those who watched Episode 5 of Eat Sleep Tennis, you will be aware of this play already.
Given Astra Sharma has been able to get herself back to full fitness (she was struggling early in 2020), and not be impacted by the 14-day quarantine over the last fortnight, I do feel she represents value here against Kaia Kanepi. Whilst Kanepi’s best tennis probably justifies the price, the lack of tennis and consistency of late is enough for me to question her as a heavy favourite.
Sharma is sitting above $4 in the head to head market, and the game handicap is set around the +4.5 game mark. Sharma is very solid on serve, and isn’t afraid to come into the net as well to take time away from a player like Kanepi. If she hits her spots on serve like we have seen from her recently, I not only like her to cover the game handicap of 4.5 games, but to also win outright.
Suggested Bet
1 unit Sharma +4.5 games vs Kanepi at $2.08 at TabTouch (note $2.22 at Pinnacle)
1 unit Sharma to defeat Kanepi at $4.10 at Unibet (note $4.31 at Pinnacle)