ATP Rome Preview: Humbert vs Shapovalov

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Humbert vs Shapovalov (Approx 08:30pm AEST)

Back to the well again with the same play opposing Denis Shapovalov, who like Rublev in round 1 was the beneficiary of some poor serving and shot selection from his opponent in key moments yesterday.

Whilst I was on Pedro Martinez to defeat Shapovalov yesterday, I was a little disappointed in his performance in some key moments. His first two dropped service games came from very poorly executed dropshots, as opposed to quality from the Canadian. Shapovalov will always have a handful of blistering shots that have the potential to make him an appealing prospect to back, however I didn’t see enough consistency in his performance to consider him value at such a short price here against Ugo Humbert.

Whilst Fabio Fognini is currently well below his best as he returns from double ankle surgery, however Humbert did a great job of finishing off the match in straight sets after a little lapse when trying to serve it out at 7-5 *5-3. He is looking more and more comfortable on the clay, and although I don’t see his outright price today as value, I don’t mind the +3.5 game handicap at plus money again.

I haven’t seen enough consistency in the game of Shapovalov to trust him at that handicap on clay. Had he not relied on errors from Martinez in a couple of key spots, I would be less inclined to oppose him today. Instead, I am comfortable taking Humbert here at the +3.5 game handicap for 1.5 units.

Suggested Bet

1.5 units Humbert +3.5 games vs Shapovalov at $2.05 at Topsport

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