Carreno-Busta vs Harris (Approx 01:00pm AEDST)
This looks to be a pretty favourable line given PCB’s form against a solid server yesterday in Chardy and the form I have seen from Harris over the course of January.
After a slow first 10 minutes, PCB was brutal yesterday in his demolition of Chardy, and looks intent on making the most of a friendly draw that has opened up for him as a result of the withdrawal of De Minaur. After saving a couple of break points in his first service game, PCB only faced one more the rest of the way, breaking Chardy 3 times and winning 67% of 2nd serve return points in the process. His first serve looked good too, winning 34/41 points.
Harris is certainly bridging the gap between himself and consistent form players at ATP level, however he still has some lapses. He rebounded well in the first set tiebreak yesterday against Djere after trailing early, however he should not be finding himself in such battles with claycourters. That consistency at the top level is part of the reason I am keen on PCB at the game handicap today.
On what looks to be a slower hardcourt, I think the -2.5 games looks quite generous in my opinion. If PCB is able to return serve in a similar fashion to yesterday, he should cover this handicap more times than not. Happy to play for 2.5 units.