Welcome to my free play for today – This play was posted a couple of hours ago to my subscribers, with the price coming in from $3.25 (and $3.50 at Topsport) into $3, however I still see quite a lot of value in the current price.
Here is the original write-up – if you have any questions, please let me know.
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ATP Moscow Qualifying
Gerasimov vs Gabashvili (Approx 09:30pm AEDST)
A bit of a funny one here on a couple of levels. It is great to see that Gabashvili has been grinding away on the Challenger tour over the course of this year, and his results over the last month or two have shown an element of improvement in his game. We are only 2 and a half years removed from Gabashvili sitting at his career high ranking of 43, boasting wins over Murray, Ferrer, Lopez, Roddick, Gonzalez and many more. Whilst admittedly the last two years have been less than ideal (64-57 at all levels – never reached inside top 140), I have noticed a little bit of improvement lately. Funnily enough, the time when I started to really pay attention towards Gabashvili was when he played Gerasimov in Karshi in early May, the man who happens to be his opponent again today.
This was at the peak of some of Gerasimov’s best Challenger tennis this year. In fact, Gerasimov went on to win the title in Karshi. That being said, the 6-4 7-6 scoreline did not provide an accurate indication of just how close this match was overall. They key difference was break point conversion, with Gerasimov converting 4/4 compared to Gabashvili’s 3/15. It is however interesting to note that in those stats, Gabashvili was able to break in 3 of the 4 return games in which he earned a break point. That being said, I don’t think there is enough to warrant that Gabashvili is $3+ today, especially on indoor hardcourt in his home town.
What also makes things interesting is Gerasimov coming from a long week in Tashkent, before travelling over 4 hours to Moscow to switch to the indoor, where he was lucky to get away with a straight sets win over Vatutin yesterday. Gerasimov was able to get away with the 7-5 6-2 win whilst winning only 41% of points on his second serve. He was lucky to escape a very messy set, however with the quick turnaround and travel, he would have been running on fumes to an extent as well.
What can be even trickier than the first match on the day of travel can be backing up for the second match the next day – when everything starts to catch up with the body. The stats of Gerasimov over the last few weeks aren’t exceptional, so to be getting well over $3 for his opponent is a very enticing prospect today. Look for Gabashvili, a 2-time Quarter Finalist in Moscow previously, to progress to to the main draw with an upset win today.
The odds suggest a straight forward win to Gerasimov. It may very well happen, however there is plenty of value in the price of Gabashvili to be comfortable with making a 3 unit selection here.
3 units Gabashvili to defeat Gerasimov at $3.25 (+225) at Bet365 (Note: $3.50 available at Topsport but not fair to post as recorded price)