The amount of tiebreak or close sets Hubert Hurkacz is playing quite frankly is insane. His scorelines in Halle have been the following: 7-5, 7-6; 7-6, 6-4; 7-6, 6-4; 7-6, 6-4; 6-7, 6-7. In his first round here at Wimbledon, Hurkacz didn’t play a tiebreaker, but still needed 41 games to finish off Radu Albot. Next up is Arthur Fils, a much better ball striker who can generate his own pace and doesn’t rely on his opponents’ unforced errors. Even though he’s still inconsistent at times, the young Frenchman can play on a super high level already and the grass is helping him keep points short and unforced errors limited. Fils beat Machac and Koepfer both in straight sets in Halle before losing 7-6, 3-6, 4-6 to Alexander Zverev. I have him a little closer to 30% in this matchup with Hurkacz, but that’s not quite enough for me to warrant a play on the moneyline. Nevertheless, the games total is a little too low for my liking. At 40.5, you basically just need a 4-setter for it to cash and with two big hitters, the chance of coin flip sets is a lot bigger. Hubie is winning most of these against lesser competition, but even in Halle, he needed a tiebreak against Cobolli, Duckworth and Giron, all of whom are less talented than Fils. I count on the former junior no. 3 to win a set and put the Pole to the test.
Suggested Bet
1u on Over 40.5 games at 1.93 (-108) with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.