This is an interesting spot, because some would think Federico Coria’s most vulnerable spot was first-up against Navone last week, and he should be replenished and ready to go against Molcan.
While I can’t be sure Coria will have heavy legs, I do know that these conditions in Santiago are not kind to him.
In a previous article citing Nicolas Jarry’s chances to win the top section at Chile this week, I spoke about Coria’s lack of wins in this city on the main draw.
Sure, at this ATP 250 competition he’s 1-3 with his sole win coming in a third-set tiebreaker against Gianluca Mager, but when you analyse the Challenger Santiago results as well, it becomes clear the Argentine doesn’t exactly have a love affair with this joint.
He’s 4-5 lifetime at Challenger Santiago with a combined hold-break clip of < 95 percent.
Given his last match there was in 2019, I’m not prepared to weigh it heavily into my decision-making process, but it’s certainly something to consider when looking at this match-up.
So, what is it? Is it the altitude? Is it the balls?
Here’s what Yannick Hanfmann said in 2023:
Hanfmann, 2023:
“I think a tournament like this with altitude it helps to have matches. I have confidence with the qualifying wins, more matches and wins is always good.” “I love the altitude. It suits my game — maybe not at night — but even still it suits my game.”
And while Coria would have had ample time to practice on these courts, I’m sure he can’t emulate the intensity Molcan has experienced through two qualifying wins: straight sets over Cecchinato, straight sets over Bagnis.
Prior to that, Molcan had two qualifying losses at Rio and Buenos Aires and it’s no surprise either given the speed of those competitions.
However, as the Slovakian is a fairly versatile shot maker, there are zero surprises he prefers this venue.
After the mental and physical exertion from Coria’s POV at Cordoba and Buenos Aires, combined with a huge drop-off in the latter stages against Navone, I truly think in less than ideal conditions he’ll be able to replicate that form in any way.
Molcan is not reliable and not overly composed, but in tournaments where he’s able to generate momentum, he is very dangerous and very aggressive.
Suggested Bet:
1 unit Alex Molcan to WIN @ $1.95 with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.