Vinny’s ITF M15 Monastir Preview – Ilia Simakin vs Joel Josef Schwaerzler

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Ilia Simakin owns a win-loss record of 57-33 on hard courts while Joel Josef Schwaerzler is still sitting at 2-4 on the pro tour. While this seems to be an impressive advantage for Simakin, let’s take a closer look beyond the numbers.

Schwaerzler is the current junior #1. Late in 2023, he won the J300 event in Repentigny, the J500 event in Osaka as well as the ITF World Tennis Tour Junior Finals, all played on hard courts. Throughout these tournaments, the 18-year-old beat almost every top junior, including current Australian Open champ Rei Sakamoto, top 10 players Nicolai Budkov Kjaer, Iliyan Radulov, Branko Djuric and Federico Cina as well as former world #1 Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez.

That being said, Schwaerzler is already transitioning to a pro tour player and even took a set off Albert Ramos Vinolas in a Challenger event last September. He possesses a potent lefty serve and rock-solid groundstrokes already and I sincerely don’t know why he’s an underdog to Simakin. The lefty matchup, the talent gap (Simakin only made it to #59 in juniors), and the form – Simakin lost to Maxence Beauge 4-6, 1-6 and had to retire down 2-6, 0-1 against Fausto Tabacco at this venue last week – all speak for the Austrian. Fittingly, Schwaerzler just beat Tabacco 6-4, 6-3 in his first match of 2024 yesterday. I really see huge value in Joel Schwaerzler here since he’s one of the few kids that’s still heavily underrated in the market.

Suggested Bets:
1u on Joel Josef Schwaerzler ML at 2.50 (+150) with bet365
1u on Joel Josef Schwaerzler +3.5 games at 1.73 (-137) with bet365

Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.