Sebastian Korda has been anything but impressive in 2024 but I’m happy to take a punt on the American’s upside ahead of a mouth-watering clash against Grigor Dimitrov.
After a scratchy three-sets Davis Cup win, the American produced an equally unconvincing win against Hugo Grenier a couple of nights ago.
People generally like to throw Korda to the wolves for generally under performing, and that’s OK, but a lot of that criticism is odds-range dependent.
As a sub $1.50 shot in the last 12 months, Korda is a -11.7% betting proposition with a 15-7 record.
He’s had odd losses to the likes of Yannick Hanfmann, Tomas Martin Etcheverry and Marton Fucsovics, and even when he does win, he finds ways to do it in a very wobbly fashion.
There is no doubt Korda is inconsistent and has his fair share of mental issues while on-court, but there’s also no doubt over the type of level he can present when he opens his shoulders.
However, if you extract the last 50 matches in which Korda has been $2 or bigger, he’s 24-26 and a whopping +47.1% ROI.
What does this mean? Well, maybe not a lot, but it does indicate that Korda perhaps prefers situations in which he’s not expected to win.
His last 5 wins as a $2+ shot: Medvedev, Tiafoe, Medvedev, Sinner, Khachanov.
After a couple of so-so performances, I really do get the impression he’s ready to do something special.
He was remarkable on hard courts towards the back end of last season, and he certainly has the ability to upset Dimitrov.
These two played in 2022 and Korda was $1.60 before winning in three sets.
The Bulgarian’s obviously had a really good six months, but given this is a first-up appearance after a shocking loss at the Australian Open, I think it would be reasonable to expect a few teething issues.
If Korda gets going early, he could put him away.
Suggested Bet:
0.75 units Korda to WIN @ $2.67 with BetKings.
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.