This one is all about how far you want to go in adjusting your line after one bad loss and an unfavorable travel spot. Zhang Zhizhen shockingly got defeated by Sebastian Dominko at Davis Cup last weekend. Maybe, the Chinese felt a little too comfortable and didn’t prepare well after winning their first two matches, but nonetheless, that was a really bad loss for a top 50 player.
Given that was a one-off, I think we’re looking at an overreaction here though. In neutral conditions, I’d make Zhang a 60% favorite indoors against Muller, who has improved but is still far from a quick-court specialist. Courts in Marseille aren’t actually slow, so Zhang will be able to finish points early with his aggressive game. He owns the bigger serve plus bigger groundstrokes, and has improved a lot last year, which is why I’m also not paying too much attention to his rather bad indoor record. I surely wouldn’t have played Zhang at the 1.73 (-137) opening line after losing to Dominko and traveling from China to France, however, a move flipping the odds altogether and making Muller a 55% favorite is a bit too much for me.
Suggested Bets:
1u on Zhang Zhizhen ML at 2.25 (+125) with betway
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.