It’s time for the quarterfinal matchup we all expected for the 2nd quarter of the Women’s Australian Open as Anna Kalinskaya faces Qinwen Zheng. In all seriousness, kudos to anyone who never doubted the WTA’s ability to wipe chalk from the board and deliver us an underdog deep into a tournament.
The draw opened up for both players thanks to curious losses for Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina to give us a fun quarterfinal. I expect a competitive match that will be tightly contested, especially in the first set.
Zheng has struggled to get her 1stserve in, but is winning those 1st serve points at a high rate. Kalinskaya has also served well this week. The 1st set total is 9.5 games as it often is and the price is 1.87(-115) which is a good bet, but I think the better plays is the alternate over at 10.5 games 3.50(+250) and 12.5 games 5.50(+450). This sets up as a bit of servefest to start the match. Maybe either steals an early break, but I think the chance we get to 5-5 is much higher than the breakeven rate of 28.5% implied at 3.50(+250).
Suggested Bets:
0.5U on Zheng/Kalinskaya 1st Set Over 10.5 Games at 3.50 (+250)
0.25U on Over 12.5 Games at 5.50 (+450)
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.