The price on Tallon Griekspoor kept drifting all the way from 2.20 to 2.75 when I decided to get involved in this matchup with Roman Safiullin. Both players made a huge step forward last year and now find themselves inside the top 40. It’s actually Griekspoor who’s seeded here. The Dutchman is on a four-match losing streak which might have influenced the market. For my liking, the drift is just too big though. Sure, his loss against Borna Coric wan’t great (not awful either though), but the other three came against Casper Ruud, Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic, who he actually had at the brink of defeat in Paris last November, leading the goat 6-4, 4-4, 40-15*.
Make no mistake, Safiullin has grown into one of the most dangerous players even for the big guns and should be favored over Griekspoor. I just don’t see the gap as big as 65/35, but rather in the 60-40 or even 55-45 range. Safiullin swapped sets with Ben Shelton and Alexei Popyrin in Brisbane, both of whom have an aggressive mindset like Griekspoor. The Russian also played five tiebreaks in his last four matches and I expect this match to be just as close. If this goes four sets, which it should, there’s a big chance of the over and handicap cashing. I’m splitting my stake over four bets, all of which hold value in my opinion.
Suggested Bets:
0.75u on Over 39.5 games at 1.92 (-109) with Pinnacle
0.5u on Over 10.5 games 1st set at 2.65 (+165) with Unibet
0.5u on Tallon Griekspoor ML at 2.75 (+175) with betway
0.5u on Tallon Griekspoor +3.5 games at 1.91 (-110) with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.