As opposed to the current market price, I have this match a pick’em with the slightest of advantages for Daniel Evans over Lorenzo Sonego. The Brit is probably still judged by his losing record in 2023, however, he’s playing better tennis again. At the US Open, Evans beat Botic van de Zandschulp and took a set off Carlos Alcaraz. After that, only his loss to Filip Misolic was a bad one. Other than that, he had a lot of competitive matches, beating Alex de Minaur and Arthur Fils, taking a set off Jannik Sinner and playing another close one with Alcaraz.
Last week, Evans beat Rinky Hijikata in Adelaide before losing in three to in-form showman Alexander Bublik. Nothing special about these results and the same can be said about Sonego’s. The Italian is 1-3 in 2024 with losses against Alexander Zverev, Adrian Mannarino and Sebastian Korda. In his only win, Sonego needed a third-set tiebreak to get past Yannick Hanfmann.
I struggle to see what the market is betting into here. The courts look quite bouncy, so Evans’ slice might not be as effective, however, the Brit also has more variety and is the better net player. These two are within 10 points in the overall Elo ratings with Evans being almost 40 points in front on hard courts. All things considered, this should be a super close match, which is why I’m going for overs as well as the unwarranted – at least in my opinion – underdog.
Suggested Bets:
0.5u on Over 10.5 1st set at 3.10 (+210) with Unibet
0.75u on Over 41.0 games at 2.17 (+117) with Pinnacle
0.75u on Daniel Evans ML at 2.29 (+129) with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.