McKenzie McDonald being $2.20 against 18-year-old Juncheng Shang looks one of the bigger market overreactions I’ve seen in some time.
The Chinese player produced a somewhat heroic run at Hong Kong last week, knocking off Laslo Djere, Botic Van De Zandschulp and Francis Tiafoe before losing 2-1 to Rublev in the semi final.
Prior to that tournament, Shang was on a five-match losing streak, losing the likes of Watanuki, Nishioka and yep, McKenzie McDonald.
Even though Shang had the home ground advantage in that day against McDonald at Zhuhai, the American started $1.57 and produced the win.
I will admit that both players are heading in somewhat opposite directions since then, but in best-of-five format, a stage in which Shang has never won a match, I cannot justify him being favourite.
McDonald lost in two sets to Miomir Kecmanovic to Adelaide which came just a few days after an ugly loss to Sebastian Ofner at Hong Kong, but he looks fine physically and likely just needed a run or two in the legs.
Shang can have all the hype he wants, but you don’t simply rock up to grand slams and win matches over seasoned professionals like McDonald.
There’s every chance Shang goes on another run this week, and I’m left looking silly, but I’m siding with experience and happy to go against the 18-year-old in a massive match.
Suggested Bet:
2 units McKenzie McDonald to WIN @ $2.26 with Pinnacle
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.
Jake’s Australian Open Preview: McDonald vs. Shang
