Roberto Bautista Agut looks on his way to shaking off a disastrous 2023 season as the ageing Spaniard dealt with injuries and bad variance on his way to an 11-12 hard court record, a fairly poor number by his standard.
He did return to form somewhat at Challenger Valencia in November, losing to Fabio Fognini in a closely-contested finale after a good run throughout the week.
The odds makers opened the Spaniard closer to $1.80 and he’s been absolutely hammered by punters to a point that I would call a little crazy.
Agut has been someone I’ve wanted to back over the years, particularly on hard courts, as his no BS style and nonstop resilience is difficult for some players to deal with, most notably Daniil Medvedev.
There’s no doubt Agut has had a sensational career thus far, and should still have a lot more to give, but there’s a BUT.
Bautista-Agut will be 36 in April, and given the way he’s played his tennis over time, I don’t know how much longer he can be going around $1.40 against genuine up and coming talents – Francisco Cerundolo is certainly that.
The 25-year-old Argentine spent most of his early 20s on the clay courts, but after making more of a commitment to the hard courts two years ago, he’s steadily improved on the surface and looked as good as ever at the end of last season.
The South American has a mammoth forehand that is deadly on the dirt, but the sheer power of the shot makes it effective on any surface; we saw that when he shocked the tour by winning a grass court title at Eastbourne last year.
I didn’t think I’d be saying this, but it’s hard to not call this bloke an all-rounder. Sure, he’s better on clay courts, but with a grass-court title under his belt and hard court wins over Monfils, Ruud, Fucsovics, McDonald and Sinner in the last two years, he can clearly play on all decks.
The issue with someone who plays a small margin for error style like Cerundolo is that if rust is present, his game can be very ugly. But, by the same token, if he’s on, he is very much on.
He is fit, fiery, and has shown the ability to not only win deciding sets, but shrug off poor openers and come back after losing the first stanza.
The courts at Hong Kong look to be a little on the quick side, which Agut will probably enjoy more than Cerundolo, but if the Argentine can shake off any potential cobwebs in this first up clash, he clearly has more power and more winning form than his opponent.
Not only that, he’s 11 years young than Agut and is still expected to improve – or at least not regress – at this stage. The same can’t be said about Agut.
Anyway, we’ve been here long enough, let’s gamble.
Suggested Bet
1.25 units Francisco Cerundolo to WIN @ $3 with Bet365. Playable down to 2.75.
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Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.