I must say that seeing Madison Keys’ odds inching towards $4, this does seem to be a solid play in the conditions in Indian Wells.
Make no mistake, it is fantastic to see Iga Swiatek producing a more consistent level in her game, a huge step for her in recent months at her age as well. I can only imagine the difficulty that comes from a pressure and expectation standpoint after winning a grand slam at such a young age. Nevertheless, I do think she is a little short today against Keys.
Swiatek at times can still show elements of frustration in her game when things aren’t going her way. It isn’t so much about the scoreboard specifically (can display these emotions when both in front and behind), however from my watching and reviewing her work, they appear to be more prevalent when playing against players who have a lot of power in their game on hardcourt. Keys is one of those players who takes control away from her opponents, and this may be evident today against Swiatek. You look at the recent losses on hard against Jelena Ostapenko and Danielle Collins, and the struggles against a player like Kaia Kanepi, and I think it highlights a slight trouble spot for Swiatek still on hard.
Happy to back Keys north of $3.50. She may go down in a blaze of unforced error glory, but happy to play at that price.
1.5 units Keys to defeat Swiatek at $3.90 at Betfair minus commission (play north of $3.50)
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.