Preview: I don’t mind the odds on Canadian Leylah Fernandez in the night session against Shelby Rogers, scheduled in a couple of hours.
Whilst Fernandez could count herself somewhat lucky to be in round three given the events that transpired in the back-end of her win-via-retirement against Amanda Anisimova, the body of work that Fernandez has produced since leaving Australia has been solid. Since then she has won the Monterrey title and has played a mixture of opposition in the process. Whilst she lost to Rogers here in a third set tiebreak last year, the first tournament she played after reaching the US Open final, I do feel the level of tennis and consistency in her game has a significant edge here on Rogers.
It’s one thing to try and gauge the overall form of Jelena Ostapenko, and it’s another thing entirely to try and process player form when their best win in recent times comes against the Latvian. Rogers was able to edge past Ostapenko with a 7-5 7-6 win, with Rogers facing break points in seven different service games, saving 7/11 in total. Contrast that with Ostapenko saving 1/6 and being broken in all five games where she face break point, and results in an above average conversion rate in what ended up being a closely contested match. With Ostapenko below her best, it makes this recent result hard to gauge.
Over the last handful of tournaments though, Rogers has not played to a level I would have expected from her. Injuries and fitness issues haven’t helped, and in the late night slow conditions in Indian Wells, with Fernandez and her exceptional court coverage and use of angles, I give the Canadian the edge here.
1.5 units Leylah Fernandez -2 games vs Rogers at $1.88 at Topsport
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.