A quick note: this match is starting soon. Whilst the form of Sebastian Baez has been incredibly impressive, he looks to be a little too short here in one market given his recent heavier scheduling.
This will be the 12th match for Baez since October 5, having lost the final of the Santiago 2 and winning Santiago 3 in the last fortnight. Whilst his form has been strong, I feel as though he has underperformed a touch towards the end of this run. He came from a set down in the SF last week as a $1.40 favourite against Barrios, then needed to win a 2nd set TB to force a third against Meligeni Alves as a $1.30 favourite, before the Brazilian ran out of legs in the third. He again had some shaky patches in round 1 here in Buenos Aires, coming from a set down again to defeat Cachin in round 1. His record over three sets is quite a ways better than his first set record over recent months and the last 12 months, and when you look at the overall form of his opponent, there is a play that appeals here.
Whilst it has been a poor 12 months on tour for Juan Ignacio Londero in terms of overall results, 7-20 in the last year, he actually holds a winning record across his first sets going 14-12. He has looked a *little* better in recent tournaments, with improved matchplay since Wimbledon, albeit over a smaller sample size.
Whilst the longer this match goes, the more this match-up lends itself to favouring Baez. Given the recent volume of play from Baez and his slower starts, coupled with Londero’s better stats over the first set compared to the full match, I am happy to jump in at the $3 for Londero to win the first set.
Suggested Bet
1.5 units Londero 1st set winner vs Baez at $3.00 (+200) at Bet365
Over 18s Only (21+ in some jurisdictions). 1 unit = 1% of bankroll. These are my bets that I am making. Please enjoy your betting responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose, and do not chase a loss.