Short and sharp here, with Aleksandra Krunic showing up as value here off the back of some impressive recent tennis.
Don’t let the ranking of 166 fool you, Krunic is a better player than her ranking suggests. Part of the reason for her drop in rankings is the fact she only played 6 matches in 2020, and only 6 matches in the first 4 months of this year. Since then, her performances have been incredibly solid across all surfaces and levels. This week in Nur Sultan, she has made her way through qualifying, before going on to defeat Katie Boulter and Kaja Juvan in impressive fashion. She has the tricky mix of decent court coverage and aggressive and power, making her a tough opponent for most on tour. The slower conditions here should assist her, as she comes up against Jaqueline Cristian for the second time in two months.
If Cristian struggled against Krunic on clay the other month, I am struggling to see he bridging the gap in conditions even more suited to Krunic than we saw in San Bartolome. Her most impressive win on indoor hardcourt in recent times has been against Jelena Ostapenko in March in Russia, and this match-up with Cristian looks to be her most difficult in recent times. As a result of that, it is hard to be too drawn into her price around the $2.10 mark. Her stats this week against Vikhlyantseva (who could only convert 4/19 break point opportunities) and Burel don’t lead me to think she is a bigger threat here to Krunic than Boulter/Juvan, so the price for the Serbian north of $1.80 is appealing.
Happy to play Krunic at the moneyline for 1.25 units, and 0.5 units on 2-0 set betting. This match will largely be on the racquet of Krunic, so I am happy to take her at the price.
1.25 units Krunic to defeat Cristian at $1.84 at Betfair minus commission
0.5 units Krunic 2-0 set betting vs Cristian at $3.25 at Bet365
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