The win from Kubler over Ernesto Escodbedo looks to have been underrated, whilst the win from Tabilo over Thanasi Kokkinakis looks to have been overrated. As a result, we have value on the Australian here in another Challenger final.
Whilst he may have been fortunate that Gomez couldn’t finish him off in the early stages of the tournament, Kubler has certainly made the most his week here in Lexington. He has come through a number of tough moments incredibly well, then backed it up with a dominant semi final win over Escobedo. His form is building and it is great to see him back on court so soon after his injury in Kazakhstan.
Alejandro Tabilo has certainly made great strides in his game since I travelled down to Traralgon to watch him play a couple of years ago, however I still don’t feel as though hardcourt is his best overall surface. He can still sometimes play with a little too much margin for error on his groundstrokes for my liking, with a style that is more suited to the red dirt. Whilst it doesn’t impact his chances as much against bigger strikers of the ball he has faced through the last two rounds in Ramanathan and Kokkinakis, I do feel as though it may lead to his undoing here.
Whereas Kuznetsov’s top level, as we saw in Nur Sultan, tops that of Kubler when he can maintain it, I don’t think this is the case when it comes to Tabilo in these conditions. He has been able to put together a solid body of work, and I have him as a far clearer favourite today. Happy to make a 1.5 unit play here on the -1.5 games.
1.5 units Kubler -1.5 games vs Tabilo at $1.83 at Bet365