What I thought was a relatively straightforward game-plan to beat Sara Sorribes Tormo on hardcourts looks to be a little more complicated if recent form is any indication. Coming up against a player who has significantly exceeded my expectations this week in Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is going to be a very difficult ask though for the Spaniard.
Pavlyuchenkova has rounded back into form with a win over Sara Errani, then a very consistent performance against Anna-Lena Friedsam in what was an incredibly one-sided result. Whilst she may not be in the top tier of players on the tour, and at short odds can come up as being value to oppose, however I have her game handicap today as one game lower than I had expected.
Perhaps the win over Ash Barty, who put in one of her more error-riddled performances in recent history in round 1, has impacted the line here a little too much? Whilst part of the game of SST is to draw out errors from the other end of the court, Pavlychenkova’s ability to take the ball early and flatten out strokes off both wings is key in this match-up. She has the tennis IQ to be selective and pick her spots, and the cooler conditions today will aid her in this one.
I will take Pavlyuchenkova at the -3.5 game handicap for 1.5 units.
1.5 units Pavlyuchenkova -3.5 games vs SST at $1.86 at Topsport