I tweeted a little earlier that I have Matteo Berrettini on upset alert, so I better put my money whether my mouth is.
For all the strengths and hype around the Italian, the majority of which is completely justified, I’d have his odds a little longer today. Whilst he has only dropped the one set across the two rounds (to Pella), I do feel he has gone a little too close to the redline for too long, and it’s nearly caught him out. Pella squared sets with him after showing no form over the last few months, and Van de Zandschulp had double break point late in the third set. Whilst it may not seem like a lot, given the step up in opponent today in an in-form Aljaz Bedene, I don’t feel I can justify sub $1.15.
Further to that, Bedene has a couple of traits that work in his favour for this matchup. He is quite compact in terms of his forehands and backhands, meaning he can get into position and absorb the pace of Berrettini quite well. The other key is his ability to re-direct his backhand up the line well. Why is that important against Berrettini? It means he can get it to the Italian’s backhand. The slice of the Italian is improving, however there is still a weakness there that is attachable.
If you don’t like taking big odds, this isn’t the play for you. I’d rather take the $7 for Bedene to win outright at a smaller staking than take a larger stake at the game handicap. I think this match will have some periods with very fine margins between the two, and in this situation I’ll take Bedene at long odds.
Suggested Bet
1.25 units Bedene to defeat Berrettini at $7 at Topsport
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