Coming off five sets against John Isner yesterday, it will be interesting to see how Yoshihito Nishioka backs up today against a more conventional opponent in Aljaz Bedene.
After a poor lead-in attempt in a straight set loss to Andreas Seppi, Nishioka managed to pull off one of the upsets of the tournament by beating Isner in 5 sets. The key to the win was limiting his unforced errors, and he did just that with only 18 across the course of the 5 sets. In the same time, Isner, playing a much more powerful game, produced 70 unforced errors to go with his 87 winners. It came down to fine margins, with Nishioka converting 2/4 break point opportunities to 2/6 from Isner, with his breaks coming in different sets.
Bedene on the other hand had a test of a different kind, albeit a player who has some similarities to Nishioka in Corentin Moutet. Bedene was strong from the outset, going on to win 6-4 6-4 6-0 in 102 minutes. It was clinical in many ways, with Bedene continually pressuring the serve of the Frenchman and breaking down his will across the course of the match.
Whilst Bedene also came into the tournament with losses in his grass court lead up tournaments, the form around those losses looks really strong. He lost 4-6 in the third set to Frances Tiafoe and lost a 3rd set tiebreak to Marton Fucsovics, both still alive in the tournament here and Tiafoe in particular playing great tennis. Given his body of work looks stronger than Nishioka, and Nishioka is backing up from a 5 set match (whilst the points were short, he was the player predominantly on the run), I like Bedene to win and cover the game handicap here.
2 units Bedene -3.5 games vs Nishioka at $1.82 at Topsport/Unibet
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