I have been wary of the ability of Medvedev on clay. More wary than most leading into this tournament.
Now, I think the odds have gone too far the other way.
Whilst Medvedev has stated he enjoys the conditions here in Paris far more than the lead up tournaments. That being said, he has played Bublik, Paul and Opelka in his three rounds. He may have played those three matches on clay, but perhaps outside of Paul, there hasn’t been a lot of pure claycourt tennis played in those matches. This presents as the first match of the tournament for Medvedev where he will find himself in a pure claycourt grind.
I do feel as though the conditions forecast today do favour Medvedev more than the heavier, overcast conditions. That being said, Garin has been tested across each of his matches, and found a way to survive and advance. Like a few other players I have backed today, I do feel as though Garin is a player that can play well against pace, even if he didn’t perhaps live up to that billing in the second round. Whilst Medvedev was lacking fitness coming off his COVID diagnosis, however Garin was able to get the better of the early going in that match (and the match overall) at the altitude in Madrid. I just don’t feel as though there is enough evidence for Medvedev remaining locked in on clay against genuine claycourters, especially over the course of the longer format.
Just the 1.25 unit selection here, however I have Garin at odds shorter than the current quote. This is a genuine test for Medvedev in my opinion.
1.25 units Garin to defeat Medvedev at $3.05 at Topsport
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