Steve’s Debrief, and WTA Madrid Preview: Kasatkina vs Sabalenka

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2-2 on Friday, with Pliskova covering from a set down, Kontaveit/Stojanovic clearing 19.5 games comfortably, Kasatkina had 6 opportunities to cover at 4-6 6-4 5-2*, and Garin lost in 3 sets to Norrie.

The record has been updated with all outrights and singles, and can be found here.

Sabalenka vs Kasatkina

Although the record is 2-1 to Sabalenka, I don’t entirely feel this is the best match-up for Sabalenka on clay. Couple that with the improved post-Australian Open form of Kasatkina, and the Russian appears to be value today.

I will be capping this selection at 1 unit, as I would prefer the conditions to be a little heavier, however there is still value in the current price. Kasatkina was in their meeting up to her eyeballs at Roland Garros late last year, whilst playing below 100% with an ankle injury. After dropping the first set in a close tiebreak, Kasatkina faded out in set 2, which is understandable given the circumstances.

Sabalenka was dominant in her win over Zvonareva in round 1, however Kasatkina has more clay craft, and far more variety in her game to cause Sabalenka some concern. Playing consistently with pace with little variety is a recipe for disaster, as we saw with Sabalenka vs Halep last week and Zvonareva in round 1. Kasatkina thrives off the pace, and has the variety in her game, and the ability to both utilise the dropshot, and disguise it, breaking up the rhythm for Sabalenka.

Just the 1 unit, however I have Kasatkina closer to $3 in this one.

Suggested Bet

1 unit Kasatkina to defeat Sabalenka at $3.85 at Unibet