Recap, and Steve’s ATP Monte Carlo Preview – Tsitsipas vs Garin

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1 wins and 3 losses last night.

Kokkinakis was *far* too strong from Horansky. On reflection, whilst the score was close in their meeting last week, Horansky feels like the type of player that may hold on to such losses, instead of looking at the positives from the result and building on them for the re-match. Kokkinakis clearly took confidence from grinding out such a win.

Garin was utterly dominant against Millman. It was exactly what I wanted to see from him to be perfectly honest.

After leading 3-1 in the first set, Domingues struggled from that point onwards against Bourgue, who didn’t face a break point the rest of the way.

Karen Karen Karen. Just when I think I can trust him, he delivers an incredibly underwhelming against PCB. I think that was more of a reflection on the poor level of Khachanov instead of an uptick in the form of PCB, even with his win streak. It isn’t stopping me from staring at the price on Ruud today against PCB.

ATP Monte Carlo

Garin vs Tsitsipas

We are getting $3.50+ here for Garin, and I have him rated at $2.50. What could go wrong?

That is a pretty significant difference between current and rated odds, and I am looking to piece together why that may be the case. There feels as though there are a couple of factors in play here, including Tsitsipas’ overall clay form being a touch overrated, the win over Karatsev potentially being overrated (the Russian put 48% of first serves in play and was unable to convert a 15/40 spot in each set on the serve of Tsitsipas), and Garin flying a touch under the radar on his favourite surface.

These two met when Tsitsipas was in marginally better form in Hamburg late last year, with Tsitsipas winning 7-5 3-6 6-4. Garin from memory took a bit off his first serve (acknowledgement that Tsitsipas isn’t the best return of serve in the world), and earned more break point chances across more return games than Stefanos. Conversion was the decisive factor, however with the form of both players here, and the cooler conditions in Monte Carlo comparative to Hamburg on September 29, I lend this to be more favourable to Garin.

I have 0.1 units on Garin in the outright market, however I cannot pass up the odds on offer here. I will be taking Garin to win for 3 units. Again, my strategy is a little more aggressive, and + games and total games over are other markets worth considering. I like the Chilean to kick off the day with an upset.

Suggested Bet

3 units Garin to defeat Tsitsipas at $3.50 at Bet365 ($3.57 at Pinnacle)