I will keep this preview on the shorter side as this match is due to get underway in a couple of hours, however there looks to be a touch of value on the German here today.
Both players have the same adjustment time transitioning from the hardcourt in Miami to the clay in Italy, so there isn’t a significant edge there either way. When you look at the body of work both players have produced on clay, and it becomes clear that Hanfmann spends a lot more time on the clay than Paul.
What complicates things? The fact that although he hasn’t played as much on the surface, Tommy Paul hasn’t exactly looked like a fish out of water on the clay. He has a handful of decent wins, including over Anderson, Bublik, Sousa, and did take Casper Ruud to 5 sets in the first round of the French Open. For all the positive performances, the consistency just isn’t there compared to Hanfmann, A claycourt Challenger title, an ATP final (Kitzbuhel) and an ATP 1/4 Final are included in his performances on clay since the COVID tour suspension, with Hanfmann looking far more consistent in this match-up.
Whilst Paul arguably has a higher ceiling, I have to side with Hanfmann here at near coin-flip odds. He has the ability to produce better tennis for longer, and should be too good on the Italian clay. Happy to back the German here for 1.5 units.
1.5 units Hanfmann to defeat Paul at $1.90 at Bet365