The solid form of Milos Raonic has continued this week, and I like him at the game handicap today against Hubert Hurkacz.
I generally don’t like to involve myself in too many matches that involve big servers such as Raonic, however I think the handicap is perhaps a game too low. On the slower hardcourt surface here in Miami, I think the -2.5 game handicap is worth a play. Effectively it is one (more) break of serve for Raonic, and there are no complexities added by the break needing to occur specifically in a particular set.
Whilst Hurkacz does have all the tools to be a threat on most surfaces, I do think he is a little vulnerable against the top tier power hitters in these slower conditions. His power doesn’t stack up with Raonic, and given the improved nature of the defensive backhand slice of the Canadian in particular, I think Raonic will find a way to pressure the Hurkacz serve.
Raonic has looked more threatening on the return of serve this week than we have seen in 2021, and hasn’t dropped serve in wins against Thompson and Humbert, whilst breaking 6 times. I have been quite down on the form of Shapovalov recently, and his lack of return game may have helped keep this game handicap down to 2.5. Raonic was able to keep the 1st serve points won by Humbert below 70%, allowing him to earn break points in 5 separate service games for the match. I like him to find inroads into the serve of Hurkacz, and will play the handicap for 1.5 units.
1.5 units Raonic -2.5 games vs Hurkacz at $1.83 at Bet365