Not too bad of a start to Miami previews as Anna Kalinskaya got the job done earlier today against Irina-Camelia Begu, unfortunately in 2, not in 3 sets. For the later matches, there’s another price that I like in the match between Camila Giorgi and Liudmila Samsonova.
I wrote a lot of stuff about Camila Giorgi and her ability to redline before and sure, she could just blast Samsonova off the court if she’s feeling it today. Consistency is what’s missing throughout her career though and I highly doubt she’ll play a perfect match today. The slow courts here hurt her and her erratic play even more, which also shows when you look into her career stats. Giorgi only won a single match in Miami, against Van Uytvanck in 2015. Losses to Robson, Diyas, Brengle or Maria emphasize her problems to handle these conditions.
If you look into this year’s results, Giorgi pretty much beat everyone she should beat and lost to players superior to her. The same can be said for Samsonova, who lost to Pironkova, Muguruza, Sorribes Tormo and Martic earlier this year. It’s important to mention that all these matches were played on (much) faster surfaces.
Growing up on Italian clay, Samsonova learned how to construct points properly early in her career and she could benefit from that feat in today’s match. She also has some power to her game, so it’s not like she has to wait for Giorgi to come up with unforced errors all the time. After a rather slow start in qualifying against Niculescu, the Russian beat countrywoman Gracheva pretty handily 6-2 6-4. With her being adapted to the courts already, I like Samsonova to beat Giorgi today and the current odds still present value to me.
1u on Liudmila Samsonova at 1.83 with Bethard