This match has all the makings of one that will be closer that many suggest, with a genuine live underdog in play here in Krejcikova.
The performances of Garbine Muguruza over the last fortnight have been impressive, outside of her final no-show against a dominant Petra Kvitova last week. She has dropped one set on her way to the final (to Sabalenka), and was able to counteract the fatigue of a long week last week with dominant performances through the first three rounds here. She came from a set an unconsolidated break down against Sabalenka, and struggled to finish off Elise Mertens in what turned out to be a tight semi final, albeit in 2 sets. She is tightening up in some key moments, and it is those type of efforts that make it hard to side with her at the 4.5 game handicap here.
I prefer to back in Krejcikova in positions where she is opposing heavy pace, so this looks favourable. She has looked at her best this week against heavy hitters in Ostapenko and Potapova, yet also handled very capable opponents in Teichmann, Kuznetsova and Sakkari. She is flying under the radar, and having won multiple grand slam doubles titles I don’t see the occasion here having a massive impact on her.
Rather than taking the bigger head to head price, I am happy to sit on the +4.5 game handicap here for 1 unit.
1 unit Krejcikova +4.5 games vs Muguruza at $2.00 at Bet365 ($2.06 at Pinnacle)