This one took a little longer than most to reach a conclusion with, given it is harder to marry up the medium term form of Anastasija Sevastova against what Jil Teichmann has been able to produce.
Ultimately, I have come to the conclusion that the Latvian has again presented as value today. Whilst she didn’t have to face Elise Mertens yesterday, as the Belgian withdrew with a shoulder injury, Sevastova handled the opposition change to Christina McHale well, winning 6-4 6-1 in 96 minutes. She won over 60% of points on both her first and second serves, whilst also winning 48% of points on return with McHale putting 70% of first serves into play.
After coming from 3-5 down to take the second set against Mladenovic to win in straight sets, Teichmann backed up by coming from a set down to defeat Qiang Wang in round 2. It was not an overly convincing win, but a win nonetheless from Teichmann, who has done well to back up from rolling her ankle in the third set of her match with Bouzkova in Melbourne last week.
I have watched Teichmann closely over the last couple of weeks and I just don’t feel she is playing at a level that is close to her best. Without a dominant serve in these conditions it can open her up to being consistently challenged to hold, and with a short term confidence boost to the form of Sevastova, I think the Swiss looks vulnerable today as a warm favourite.
I will be backing in Sevastova to win here for 2 units.
2 units Sevastova to defeat Teichmann at $2.34 (+134) at Topsport ($2.40 at Pinnacle)