I spoke about this match on Eat Sleep Tennis earlier in the week, however I think my preference to take Kwiatkowski in this situation lies in the first set more than the full match.
It has been interesting to keep an eye on the players coming back into these tournaments coming off a month or so in Australia. That is also the case for Kwon Soonwoo, who not only spent the month in Melbourne, but also managed to squeeze in an entire Challenger tournament in Italy last week. He claimed the title with wins over Jung, Marcora, Maden, Donskoy and Musetti on his way to the title.
Kwiatkowski was also in Italy for the qualifying of the Challenger, where he lost to Blaz Kavcic after winning the first set 6-2. He spent a couple of weeks in Italy as a result of not qualifying for the Australian Open, however he has been able to make his way through two ATP level qualifying rounds here in Singapore. It was a soft draw, with wins over Bambridge and Galloway, however it will have given the American a boost of confidence and the ability to adjust to the conditions in Singapore.
The longer this match goes, the more I think it will end up favouring Kwon. Given Kwiatkowski has been a little stronger in first sets of late compared to full match, and has two matches on these courts under his belt and Kwon is on the back-up from Italy, I will take Kwiatkowski to win the first set for 1 unit.
1 unit Kwiatkowski first set winner vs Kwon at $2.55 (+155) at Unibet