Whilst I do understand Shelby Rogers being the favourite in this match-up on form of late, it looks as though the odds have become a little too skewed given this isn’t they worst style of match-up for the Brit.
In the slightly cooler conditions in the night session, Rogers shouldn’t have as much of an advantage as we saw in the middle of the afternoon against Veronika Kudermetova. Her least impressive performance of her three weeks in Melbourne also came in the evening, when she lost to Ash Barty in straight sets. She looked solid in her match with Kudermetova yesterday, but not solid enough to have a player with her consistency at sub $1.50 today against Konta.
Whilst the form of Konta in Melbourne wasn’t exceptional, she was looking pretty good in the early stages of her match with Kaja Juvan prior to her injury. We are now over two weeks since that retirement, and whilst a injury such as that suffered by Konta can be quite disabling in the first instance (ie. causing her to retire from the match she is playing at the time of injury), it looks as though she has overcome the injury over the past fortnight. If she had doubts in her ability to perform here, she would have likely pulled the pin on her stay in Melbourne and returned home a couple of weeks ago.
If you want a bit of extra security in this play, I would suggest backing Konta at a bookmaker that voids your selection in case of a retirement. Konta plays some of her best tennis against bigger strikers of the ball in my opinion, and this looks to be a good spot to back her in for 2 units.
2 units Konta to defeat Rogers at $2.62 (+162) at Bet365