Daniil Medvedev is heading into uncharted territory today, as he backs up from his first ever five set victory in his career. I’m not sure odds of $1.03 for the Russian, coming off his first 5 set win, having also taken a medical timeout, is something I really want to be a part of today.
That is moreso the case when you consider the form of Mackenzie McDonald this week. He is playing efficient, intelligent tennis, and has done a great job of reducing his time on court to give himself a chance today physically against Medvedev. Normally a player will reach this point of the tournament and come up against a big name having exerted too much energy in the three previous rounds. McDonald has only dropped two sets through three matches and looks comfortable on court.
For one reason or another Medvedev has looked least comfortable when playing on Margaret Court Arena than the other stadium courts in recent years. Today is a slightly warmer day in terms of the weather forecast, and McDonald has shown that he doesn’t mind the faster conditions on offer.
Medvedev is one of the favourites for the tournament, and justifiably so. What I take a small issue with here are some of the unknowns at play for such a short price. We haven’t seen Medvedev backing up from a 5 setter before, because he has never previously won one. Add to that the impacted conditions to start this season including quarantine, and the MTO against Krajinovic, as well as kicking his coach out of the box, and there are some small question marks in play.
McDonald can be aggressive when he needs to be aggressive, so I don’t see him shying away from this contest. That being said, I do have him rated around the $7.50 mark, making the $18 currently available a nice price.
I think this has the potential to go to the extreme either way. Either Medvedev wins 6-2 6-1 6-2 and cements AO favouritism, or things get messy for him and McDonald becomes a genuine winning chance today. As a result, I’d rather a smaller unit play on the money line, than a larger unit play on a game handicap.
1.5 units McDonald to defeat Medvedev at $18 minus commission at Betfair