The 6-4 6-2 win over Ons Jabeur flattered Naomi Osaka in round 3, and looking at the body of work that Garbine Muguruza has been able to put together over the course of the last fortnight, the Spaniard represents value.
On these type of hardcourts there are certain types of players that I would prefer to oppose Muguruza with if the price were right. Counterpunching types with solid movement, or players that have enough variety to disrupt the rhythm of Muguruza (ie. Barty). In decent form and looking incredibly comfortable on the Melbourne Park courts in these conditions, the Spaniard looks to be a very nice price in the head to head market today.
Osaka appears to be going for more power on her first serve this week, however it may come at a cost. Whilst the scoreline read 6-4 6-2, there was no element of comfort in most of her service games. She struggled to find the range on her first serve, and only held at better than 40/30 on one occasion, after she had broken the will of Jabeur for *5-2 in the second. She showed her ability to handle the tight situations better than Jabeur, winning all seven games that ended up going to Deuce. Given the form of both players though, I am struggling to justify to $2.75+ on offer for Muguruza.
A smaller 1.5 unit selection, however I cannot pass up Muguruza in these conditions. Odds of $2.85 imply a 35% win probability, which is too low in the conditions.
Suggested Bet
1.5 units Muguruza to defeat Osaka at $2.85 (+185) at Unibet