I alluded to this match on an episode of Eat Sleep Tennis earlier in the week, and the value on Ostapenko has come to fruition.
It is worth noting here that the wind is forecast to be nowhere near as strong today in Melbourne. Why is that noteworthy? It would have heavily favoured Svitolina in my opinion, especially off what I saw live watching her play Andrea Petkovic. With far more consistency and margin for error in her game, it was easy pickings for Svitolina. It was solid without being spectacular, however that won’t be enough today.
The one big weakness of Svitolina is her ability to be wiped off the court by some of the bigger strikers of the ball when they are in the zone. I very rarely take Jelena Ostapenko as a favourite, however given her potential she stands out when she is an underdog, like we have today. An implied winning probability of 1 in 3 (33.3%) is too low in this match-up the week before a slam. Ostapenko has looked solid through her two wins this week, especially since falling down a set and a break to Errani in round 1. She is being a little more aggressive on serve, and given Svitolina isn’t the strongest on serve herself, she should have opportunities to work her way into games on the return of serve consistently.
At the price on offer, I am placing a 1.5 unit selection on Ostapenko to win outright. I think there is more value in her head to head price than the game handicap and will play that accordingly.
1.5 units Ostapenko to defeat Svitolina at $3.00 (+200) at Bet365