Anisimova vs Korpatsch (Approx 09:00pm AEST)
I have been looking at this match for the better part of 48 hours, and my main question is: is Amanda Anisimova playing well enough to be such a heavy favourite in the conditions in Paris today?
Conditions are incredibly different to those we saw when Anisimova made her way through to the semi final of the 2019 edition of the tournament. The American has endured a rough 16 months since that tournament, both on and off the court, and since the tour restarted in August has struggled to find any consistency in her game. I much prefer her on the clay in much faster conditions, making this a tougher ask for her. A tight win over Donna Vekic and a 3 set loss to Dayana Yastremska doesn’t appear to stack up as dominant form either, with Yastremska falling to Daria Gavrilova in the tricky conditions yesterday.
Korpatsch has a lot of recent form on the clay, which included winning the German Pro Series Exhibition in July. She also beat Nadia Podoroska in straight sets in Prague, with Podoroska going on a 14-1 run on the surface since that meeting. Korpatsch looks very comfortable on the slow clay, and has the patience in her game to be able to counterpunch and use the conditions to the best of her ability. I think a bigger striker will actually work quite well here as an opponent for the German, so there is a great appeal in her price here.
I think Anisimova is too short on her surname and SF appearance last year. I would have Korpatsch closer to $3.25 here, making the $5.75 an incredibly appealing prospect. I am happy to make a 2 unit selection here. For those looking for a play with a higher percentage of winning, albeit at less value in my eyes, I would look at total games over, or Korpatsch +1.5 sets.
2 units Korpatsch to defeat Anisimova at $5.60 at Topsport
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