Hoang vs Koepfer (Approx 11:00pm AEST)
I have mentioned a couple of times over the last few weeks that I am looking for the time to oppose Koeper, and this may be the time at a short price in tough conditions.
Through his three matches against Djokovic, Nishioka and Bautista Agut, Koepfer managed to save 41 of the 57 break points he faced, whilst converting 14 of 28 of his own opportunties. They are impressive results, however as I mentioned in my preview against Bautista-Agut, we will likely see a regression back towards the mean in terms of saves and conversions in the coming matches. Long story short, the recent results are perhaps a touch flattering to the overall form of Koepfer, as he comes in here as a short price against Antoine Hoang, playing at home.
Hoang has slowly built into his form since the tour restarted, with his best results coming with a semi final in Todi as well as a quarter final in Aix En Provence. He looked great here last year, defeating Dzumhur and Verdasco on his way to the third round, where he lost to Gael Monfils. Whilst the majority of his ranking points come from indoor hardcourt, Hoang has shown himself to be a very capable player on the clay at times.
When you look at the stats of Koepfer over the last three matches, and combine that with catching Musetti in a significant letdown spot coming off wins against Wawrinka and Nishikori, Koepfer looks to be under the odds here. I am happy to take a 1 unit position on Hoang at $3.50+. If you are looking for a lower odds selection, I would take Hoang at the game handicap.
1 unit Hoang to defeat Koepfer at $3.75 at Bet365
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