Zverev vs Mannarino (Approx 04:00am AEST)
Way, way, wayyyyy too short.
I am trying to find the form in which Alexander Zverev is deserving to be sub $1.20 today? Let’s break this one down in quite a bit of detail.
We will start with Alexander Zverev.
Zverev has now played three matches since the tour resumed. His first match was last week against Andy Murray, which he lost 3-6 6-3 5-7, in a performance that included 10 aces and 11 double faults, and a failed attempt to serve out the match. It is worth noting that day that Zverev got 52% of his first serves into play.
The second match was against Kevin Anderson, who outside of a three set win over Kyle Edmund has physically struggled since the tour resumed. The positive for Zverev? 67% of first serves into play, helping offset the fact he only won 45% of points behind the second ball.
The third match was against Brandon Nakashima, who was incredibly competitive through the first two sets. Again, Zverev was able to put 75% of his first serves into play, reducing the pressure on his second serve. It was necessary, as the German was only able to win 34% on his second serve. The performance from Nakashima in sets three and four suggested that he started to run out of gas, which would not have been a surprise given the intensity of the match-up, Nakashima’s age and the conditions on the day.
So a loss to Andy Murray, a 4 set win over an out of form Kevin Anderson and a 4-set win over a player that before this week had never played a best of 5 set match on tour, largely due to a first serve percentage in the top 10 % for Zverev since the start of 2018.
Now let’s take a look at Adrian Mannarino, who has defeated Lorenzo Sonego and Jack Sock for the loss of only one set. The key to Mannarino’s success has been limiting unforced errors, with only 12 across the three sets against Sock in round 2. He has a game style that is completely different to what Zverev has faced over the last couple of matches, and he looks to be in fantastic shape if his last two rounds are any indication.
I know Zverev has won their two meetings in the past, however I do not feel this is a bad match-up for the Frenchman. We have seen over the last 12 months that when Zverev struggles with his serve or at times forehand, he falls back to his constant, and that is his backhand. I think the Mannarino forehand will match up quite well in the conditions, and his ability to re-direct the ball to keep Zverev on the move across the best of 5 sets in hot conditions will be important.
I also feel the Mannarino backhand to Zverev forehand rallies aren’t too bad for Mannarino. He keeps the ball relatively flat compared to many players, and given Zverev’s action on his forehand it could lead to more unforced errors. Zverev will need to work harder in rallies than he did against Anderson and Nakashima, so I would like to see Mannarino keep the unforced errors to a minimum and force Zverev to beat him.
The price on Mannarino in the heat of the day is absurd in my opinion. If Zverev serves an incredibly high first serve percentage again today, then fair play to him and I will accept the loss and move on. If we see a regression back to the mean, some tight moments with a crafty return of serve from Mannarino and some long rallies in the heat of the day though, we might just see an upset here.
I am happy to play the head to head price on Mannarino for 3 units, as I see significant value in the price.
Suggested Bet
3 units Mannarino to defeat Zverev at $5.80 at Topsport
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