Samsonova vs Pegula (Approx 01:00am AEST)
I was anticipating something closer to coin-flip odds in this one, so the $2.20+ for a player in this match is incredibly appealing.
I have backed Jessica Pegula many times over the last couple of years, as she was someone who seemed to be regularly underrated by bookmakers and tennis followers alike. Her performance in Auckland at the start of the year, which was her first significant WTA level push outside of North America, helped put her on the map a little more. Had the tour continued on through March and April, I would have happily rode the momentum she had gained for a productive North American swing. Instead, COVID-19 suspended the tour and Pegula lost some of that momentum.
Whilst she was able to generate some wins in World Team Tennis, her three performances at WTA level since the tour resumed haven’t filled me with as much confidence as I would have liked. She scraped by Vera Zvonareva in three sets, lost to CC Bellis 3-6 2-6 in 85 minutes, and yesterday took nearly 2 hours to defeat Varvara Gracheva 7-5 7-6 in a tightly contested affair. I was hoping to see a slightly more dominant performance from her yesterday. Instead, her upcoming opponent was the one that dominated.
I was certainly off the mark with Liudmila Samsonova yesterday in a big way. Alas, she dominated after going down an early break to Lauren Davis, and to defeat the American means you are generally striking the ball exceptionally well. I was a little worried as to how she was going to respond coming across from Europe, however she certainly exceeded my expectations. I prefer to support Samsonova against bigger strikers of the ball, so that also plays into her favour here.
Much like other plays over the last few days, I will keep the staking low as we build a sample and edge towards the US Open. I am happy to take Samsonova to win for 1 unit.
1 unit Samsonova to defeat Pegula at $2.26 at Topsport
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