Palermo Thoughts – August 4

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Although the 1.5 unit selection on Maria Sakkari -4 games didn’t win yesterday, it has to be noted that Kristyna Pliskova played incredibly well, especially in some very tight moments on serve throughout the match.

Elsewhere, the biggest surprises of the day came from the Italians, with Errani, Paolini and Cocciaretto all winning their first round matches as underdogs. 

Onto today, where a number of players will be playing their first match for the tournament, some against qualifiers with a couple of matches under their belt. Off limited data, there isn’t anything I am compelled to write about for this group of matches from a betting perspective. Instead I will be watching closely.

Just because there aren’t any plays on the board for today, doesn’t mean that there hasn’t been any research into the slate. Here are some of my thoughts:

  • Upon the qualifiers being placed into the main draw, the first match that stood out from a play perspective was Zidansek at the game handicap against Dodin. These aren’t ideal conditions for Dodin, and should be near-perfect for Zidansek. The handicap is a touch steep for my liking, with one burst of play from Dodin perhaps enough to be able to cover the handicap on offer.
  • My main match to watch is Juvan vs Vondrousova. I am fascinated to see how Juvan stacks up, and if the qualifying run will benefit her enough to snatch an upset of one of the tournament favourites. 
  • I will be fascinated to see how Samsonova and Flipkens unfolds. We saw some fantastic tennis from Samsonova to start the year, however the variety from Flipkens will be an interesting test here!
  • I am also very interested to watch Podoroska vs Ferro – Ferro is proficient on clay, and her draw has now opened up. Can she take advantage of it, or will Podoroska continue her qualifying form?
  • I was incredibly close to making a play on Tig at a big price. I understand Kontaveit should be clear favourite, however she does seem to be incredibly short from an odds perspective. I don’t feel compelled enough to make a play.

I will write up a review of my round 1 thoughts at the completion of play today, with some thoughts on some potential round 2 selections if value can be found.