Welcome to my preview for Jung vs Milojevic, taking place in the US Challenger in Knoxville on Friday approximately 5:00am AEDST. This is just a short little preview, however I felt compelled to get something written up for this match in particular, as I have the feeling the wrong player is favoured on current indoor hardcourt form.
Jason Jung has done an exceptional job to reach his current ranking just outside the top 100. Whilst some of his more recent form has looked pretty decent on the surface, none of his wins since the start of September have come against players in the top 200. I think personally I have fallen victim to being sucked in a touch by his ability to beat those ranked well below him convincingly, as once he comes up against opponents who are a touch stronger, he doesn’t quite play up the level of his odds. He is 14-14 against top 200 players, however a number of those came earlier in the year when his form was perhaps a touch better than what he is currently displaying.
Whilst his performance in a number of key areas has improved this year (notably getting out to the backhand on the run), however his second serve is still a significant area of concern in my opinion. His last 5 matches (all against players who I would consider weaker than Milojevic) have yielded a second serve win percentage of between 33-47%, which spells trouble for me today, especially when he doesn’t have a particularly large bail-out type first serve. For mine this spells trouble, especially against a player like Milojevic.
Speaking of the Serbian, Milojevic has certainly finished the year better than he started. After a wretched start to the season, he found himself dropping back to Futures level to claim a title in February. He has slowly built his season, highlighted with a Challenger Title in Fergana in June and a Final in Almaty last month (lost to Istomin in 3 sets). He is starting to look a touch more consistent and locked in on court, and I think his style of play really does match up well against Jung today. His straight sets win over Serdarusic is great form leading into Jung.
I am not too fussed about Jung’s win over Milojevic on grass in Wimbledon qualifying a great deal – Milojevic is playing far better tennis than a few months ago, and the grass surface did not do the Serbian any favours with the ball skidding and staying low.
Look for Milojevic to control the majority of points against Jung today, notably on the second serve return. If he can keep Jung on the back foot consistently, then I really like his chances today, especially at the underdog odds of $2.15.
2.5 units (2.5% of bankroll) Milojevic to defeat Jung at $2.15 (+115) at Unibet.